47. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper.
The owners of the Cumquat Cafe evidently made a good business decision in moving to a new location, as can be seen from the fact that the Cafe will soon celebrate its second anniversary there. Moreover, it appears that businesses are not likely to succeed at the old location: since the Cafes move, three different businessesa tanning salon1, an antique emporium, and a petgrooming shophave occupied its former spot.
地方报纸的商业版：
Cumquat咖啡馆的拥有者近期做出了一个出色的商业决定：搬迁到新地址。从事实可见，咖啡馆会非常快在那里庆祝它的两周年店庆。而且这项业务看来在原址上不可以获得成功。由于咖啡馆搬迁后，3家不一样的企业：一个日光浴沙龙，一个古董店，一个宠物婚嫁店就占据了它原来的地址。
1. 在新地址庆祝第二个周年龄念日只能说明，搬到新地址之后咖啡馆继续存活了下来但不是比原来好了作者并没给出足够的证据证明。
2. 致使另外三家店没办法在那个地址经营下去是什么原因可能并表示不是地址而是其他原因
3. 那个地址即使不合适开那三种店计划内并没证据证明也不合适开咖啡馆
In this argument the author concludes that Cumquat Cafe was correct in its decision to move to a new location. In support of this assessment2 the author points out that while the Cafe has been in business for two years at its new location, three businesses have failed at its previous location. The authors line of reasoning is that the cause of the failure of the three businesses is the fact that they all occupied the same location. This argument is problematic in two important respects.
In the first place, no evidence has been offered to support the assumption that the reason the three businesses failed was their location. While location is an important contributing factor to a business success or failure, it is not the only such factor. Many other reasonspoor business practices, lack of advertising3, or poor customer servicecould just as likely account for their lack of success. Lacking a detailed4 analysis of the reasons these businesses failed, it would be foolish to attribute their failure to their location.
In the second place, while location may have been a factor which contributed to the failure of these businesses, the reason may not have been the location itself but rather the suitability of the business to the location. For example, a pet-grooming shop or a tanning salon located in a downtown metropolitan5 business district is unlikely to succeed simply because this type of business is obviously unsuitable to the location. On the other hand, a bank in the same location might be extremely successful simply because of its suitability to the location.
In conclusion, the authors argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the conclusion, the author would have to evaluate other possible causes of the failure of the three businesses, then in each case eliminate all possible causes except location.
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